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Much recent speculation has centred on the resumption of shipments of Australian wine to China if Beijing rescinds its tariff regime, following the news about removing barriers on barley trade. Previously China was Treasury’s largest export market, accounting for almost a third of its profits and Ford has promised that any reopening will be gradual.

Yesterday TWE promised to delay allocating its annual vintage of high-end Penfolds wine for a few months to keep its options open. But Chief executive Tim Ford promised not to cut supplies of the of the luxury Penfolds range in Australia, which has proved to be one of the growth engines for the brand along with Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand where distribution of Penfolds was aggressively stepped up to make up for some of the trade lost in China.

“It’s prudent to give ourselves some flexibility,” he said. “We’re not going to short markets, so to speak. We’ll just monitor where we allocate over the next four to five months. If China reopens, demand will be above supply.”

Sales of Penfolds produced in the Ningxia region of China, which began selling in late 2022 at around $50 per bottle, have reached 100,000 cases so far.

A report from Rabobank says that even if the China wine tariffs were removed and exports resumed, it would still take Australia’s wine industry at least two years to work through its current surplus, which is the equivalent of 2.8 billion bottles.