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On Thursday 28 March, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced that the anti-dumping duties on Australian wine to mainland China were to be removed from 29 March 2024.

This is positive news for Australian wine exporters, as mainland China remains an important market for the Australian wine sector.

Over many years, Australian wine companies have developed close relationships with importers, buyers and consumers of Australian wine in China and we know that trade and consumer sentiment for Australian wine in China remains positive.

However, the wine market in mainland China is different now to what it was at the end of 2020 when interim duties were first applied on Australian wine.  Australian wineries seeking to re-enter the market should consider the changes when building their export strategies.

China has implemented a number of regulatory changes in recent years that affect the export of wine to China.  Perhaps most significantly, effective 1 January 2022, food manufacturers and exporters must register with the General Administration of Customs China (GACC).

Prior to the introduction of the import duties on bottled Australian wine to mainland China, it was Australia’s biggest export market with wine exports peaking at 121 million litres valued at $1.3 billion in the 12 months ended October 2020.

Australia was also the number one imported country of origin in mainland China with a 27 per cent volume and 33 per value share of imported wine sales in 2020 according to IWSR.

Since the introduction of the import duties on bottled Australian wine (of 2 litres or less), Australian wine exports to mainland China have fallen dramatically, to just $10 million and 1.4 million litres in the 12 months ended December 2023.  The number of Australian exporters to China has also fallen from a peak of 2,400 to 117.

According to IWSR, Australia’s market share of the wine market has fallen to 3 per cent by value and 2 per cent by volume in 2022.

The mainland China market has changed significantly over the past five years.  This is principally due to the decline in the size of China’s imported wine market.

Wine imports are now a third of what they were five years ago, falling from 688 million litres in 2018 to 248 million litres in 2023.  It is also shows that imports were falling prior to the imposition of the duties in 2020 – Australian wine exports were growing against the trend.

Furthermore, data from IWSR shows that between 2017 and 2022, there was also a significant decline in the consumption of Chinese wines in mainland China, with the volume falling by 70 per cent from 855 million litres in 2017 to 252 million litres in 2022.

The decline in imported and Chinese wines post-2020 was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, associated lock-down periods, a slowing economy and low consumer confidence.  The exit of Australia from the wine market has hastened this decline.