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Since 2009, "small bars" (xiao jiuguan), combining alcohol with elements like pubs and dining, have proliferated, becoming popular leisure spots for urban youth and a favored new terminal for the liquor industry's "scenario-based marketing." However, despite the sector's apparent vitality, these bars have also become one of the "three burdens" (alongside milk tea shops and cafes) dragging down middle-class entrepreneurs through closures and debt.

The "2025 Bar Development Report" by Hongcan Industrial Research Institute shows over 60,000 bar outlets nationwide by March 2025, run by more than 38,000 companies. The industry scale exceeded 112 billion RMB in 2024, projected to reach 117.5 billion RMB in 2025. Three main models dominate:

1.  Pubs: Focus on drinks + snacks, relaxed atmosphere, targeting Gen Z value-seekers.

2.  "Dine + Drink": Upscale venues transitioning from daytime eateries to nighttime bars, targeting quality gatherings.

3.  "Fusion Model": Combines a primary business (e.g., tea, coffee, hotpot) with a bar for novel experiences.

This diversity caters to young consumers' social needs and fuels massive online engagement (e.g., 16 billion views on Douyin). The sector's youth appeal attracts liquor companies and significant capital. Regionally, East China leads, with rapid growth in Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu. While tier-1 cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu have high concentrations, over 50% of outlets are in tier-3 cities and below, indicating growth potential. However, the market is fragmented: 57.9% of brands have ≤5 outlets; only 5.1% have >100.

Middle-Class Rush & Collapse:

Driven by low perceived entry barriers and stable demand, small bars became a top entrepreneurial choice for the middle class, replacing previous "burdens" like B&Bs and escape rooms. Under "age 35 curse" career pressures, nearly 40% of China's new middle class sought career shifts post-2021, with entrepreneurship surging 64% in two years – heavily focused on F&B.

This influx caused local oversaturation. For instance, a 200-meter street near a Shenzhen subway exit hosts nearly 20 beverage shops. Overall growth is slowing: new tea drink market growth is projected to drop from 44.3% (2023) to 12.4% (2025), with bars facing similar pressures. Industry expert Ma Fei notes the lack of national chains and low barriers fueled this rush, creating heat but also leading to repetitive, low-competitiveness investments lacking differentiation.

The Hongcan report identifies homogenization and inefficient competition as key failure drivers: over 60% of new bars adopt similar "industrial" or "Chinese chic" themes devoid of local character (e.g., clusters of faux-antique bars in Chengdu). Menus show high overlap (80% similarity in craft beer bars; plum/mijiu dominance in Chinese bars). Combined with operational issues and cut-throat local competition, this turned bars into a feared investment for the middle class.

Catalyst for Industry Reform?

While burdensome for individual investors, small bars represent hope for larger capital and the liquor industry itself. The rise of low-alcohol trendy beverages (LATBs) presents a major opportunity. Bars are crucial LATB sales points (estimated 35% of LATB sales in 2024), with craft beer commanding ~200% premiums onsite.

Baijiu giants are also betting on bars: Jiangxiaobai opened 6 outlets in Chongqing since 2021, Yanghe partnered with Wanda Hotels for "Jieyou Xiaoguan," and others are opening brand-culture integrated bars in high-traffic areas. While currently minor for sales volume, their unique cultural-consumption fusion is strategically valued.

The sector is seen as a potential catalyst for industrial chain upgrades. Some craft beer bars push breweries towards small-batch, flexible production for regional precision. "Brewery-pub" models integrate production and sales. Crucially, bars are becoming the primary scenario for "liquor culture popularization" among Gen Z, far exceeding traditional channels.

Future Outlook:

Ma Fei predicts the inevitable consolidation driven by industrialization and capitalization. Future viability likely hinges on deeper integration with the liquor industry, leveraging the scenario advantage. Bars can attract younger generations and boost sales while expanding functions – but these expansions demand capital and technology beyond the reach of most individual investors.